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Although no-one is calling it yet, both Labor and the Liberals believe that the suburban Sydney seat of Bennelong will fall to the ALP with a swing of almost six per cent, The Sydney Morning Herald has reported.
Bennelong has for the past 11 years been seen as a bellwether seat—the party that wins Bennelong has gone on to win government in every election since 1996.
Eden-Monaro in southern New South Wales will also retain bellwether status. But it’s bad news for Macarthur, which looks likely to keep its Coalition MP and stop being a bellwether for the first time in its history.
Being a bellwether is a great way for a seat to get more attention during the campaign. This year, around 88 seats will gain the coveted bellwether status, with each going to the party that forms government at least once in the past three years.
Political scientists note that the first senate seat in every state and territory is also usually a bellwether.
